博文
牛刀：中国房价泡沫破灭时比日本危害大
为《凤凰周刊》撰写的专稿
The Chinese government and people are making strenuous efforts to try to resolve the foam. However, as an economic phenomenon, rely solely on administrative means and moral aspirations, can not solve the fundamental problem. Economic issues, the final solution must be the economic means, not pain killers, we can not resolve the bubble.
Pessimistic that the current means of the bubble can not be resolved, because the government did not want to see the bankruptcy of a large number of developers, jumped off a large number of professional real estate - of course, jumped to his argument is just an image, but do not want to see the land value dropped to low, unable to reverse the reliance on real estate trends. So, the consequences is that the housing bubble burst, the situation in Latin America and Japan in terms of relatively more serious.
Could harm the goodwill of the government a large number of people. At this point the government should send a more clear signal, because the severity of the situation can not now projected. The Government has already sent a signal to the market, but this signal is not clear, leading developers do not want to cut prices, customers unwilling to selling real estate, hedge buy some ordinary people still chip in to pay the down payment. The Government has in fact no longer able to issue bank notes, and rely on a lack of money-driven housing prices kinetic energy, when all the focus of the conflict, when focused together, the bubble will begin to burst.
Japan's housing bubble burst, Japan's Gini coefficient is 0.47, more than the international warning level of 0.07. Unlike in China, ah, the Gini coefficient in China this year to break 0.52, the Gini coefficient when the bubble burst to break 0.54, than the Japanese seriously. The only way to reduce the Gini coefficient, is to house prices. I made a simple guess, if house prices fall 20% next year, when the Gini coefficient will remain the standard of this year; prices down 30%, the Gini coefficient will be reduced to 0.50, is still the risk of bubble area; only reduce to 40% after the Gini coefficient will reduce the 0.49, then there would be no bubble in China's threat.However, it is difficult to achieve.
Japan's housing bust, Japan's currency is strong, sharp appreciation against the U.S. dollar as market recognition. The Chinese Government is now in the primary currency manipulation, abide by the rules if it is of course the people of fortune; But what if that one song, a senior official finger, one can imagine tens of thousands of money will flow more than ten trillion market. Even if the rules, 17% of annual monetary growth is not sustainable, the balance of this year will exceed 70 trillion M2, more than double the GDP, much higher than the U.S. 10 trillion yuan, and can not be recycled. Money market interest rates, exchange rates and other sensitive information can easily generate confusion, very easy to lead to market miscalculation.
Japan and China as well the different national conditions and social systems, various international and domestic economic environment, the attitude and position towards the housing is different, so ordinary people in Japan when the bubble burst, and not many people at risk, and only real estate speculators this group problems, while China's housing problem involves a lot of ordinary people, once the bubble burst, many people will be endangered.
Pessimistic that the current means of the bubble can not be resolved, because the government did not want to see the bankruptcy of a large number of developers, jumped off a large number of professional real estate - of course, jumped to his argument is just an image, but do not want to see the land value dropped to low, unable to reverse the reliance on real estate trends. So, the consequences is that the housing bubble burst, the situation in Latin America and Japan in terms of relatively more serious.
Could harm the goodwill of the government a large number of people. At this point the government should send a more clear signal, because the severity of the situation can not now projected. The Government has already sent a signal to the market, but this signal is not clear, leading developers do not want to cut prices, customers unwilling to selling real estate, hedge buy some ordinary people still chip in to pay the down payment. The Government has in fact no longer able to issue bank notes, and rely on a lack of money-driven housing prices kinetic energy, when all the focus of the conflict, when focused together, the bubble will begin to burst.
Japan's housing bubble burst, Japan's Gini coefficient is 0.47, more than the international warning level of 0.07. Unlike in China, ah, the Gini coefficient in China this year to break 0.52, the Gini coefficient when the bubble burst to break 0.54, than the Japanese seriously. The only way to reduce the Gini coefficient, is to house prices. I made a simple guess, if house prices fall 20% next year, when the Gini coefficient will remain the standard of this year; prices down 30%, the Gini coefficient will be reduced to 0.50, is still the risk of bubble area; only reduce to 40% after the Gini coefficient will reduce the 0.49, then there would be no bubble in China's threat.However, it is difficult to achieve.
Japan's housing bust, Japan's currency is strong, sharp appreciation against the U.S. dollar as market recognition. The Chinese Government is now in the primary currency manipulation, abide by the rules if it is of course the people of fortune; But what if that one song, a senior official finger, one can imagine tens of thousands of money will flow more than ten trillion market. Even if the rules, 17% of annual monetary growth is not sustainable, the balance of this year will exceed 70 trillion M2, more than double the GDP, much higher than the U.S. 10 trillion yuan, and can not be recycled. Money market interest rates, exchange rates and other sensitive information can easily generate confusion, very easy to lead to market miscalculation.
Japan and China as well the different national conditions and social systems, various international and domestic economic environment, the attitude and position towards the housing is different, so ordinary people in Japan when the bubble burst, and not many people at risk, and only real estate speculators this group problems, while China's housing problem involves a lot of ordinary people, once the bubble burst, many people will be endangered.
作者；牛刀 译者；谷歌翻译
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