Policy should not have a thick stick in the end was short posterior

Bewildering complexity of the current economic situation with the strange, not only for China's management was difficult, the feeling of using tools dilemma, the West is overwhelming the government. Understanding of the market crisis, it seems that every excess is always a period of time will break out once, but more to the age of advanced technology, this harbinger of the more secretive, and always unexpected and systematic way of surprise, policy reversal can occur at any time.
  Most serious of Western economists believe that the United States and other Western economies face a real risk is deflation, not inflation. Moreover, the economic slowdown and deflation pressure to enlarge the deficit and other debt pressure, making it more and more pessimistic about future expectations, which is the basis of the expected second bottom.
  The United States, the headache is to enjoy the benefits of international currency occasion, but also consume their own economic strength. Moreover, key U.S. economic indicators of employment, to the viewer insight into the Qi Zhong Jiao Du subtle, will find that the current United States policy stimulus, Hennan create more opportunities, America's Gong Zibi emerging markets is much higher need for enterprise Mo business in the United States, Moreover, the United States do not want to sacrifice their own resources, plus the labor is not cheap, in order to finance the founding act as an international financial boss, easily and give access to the benefits of his country, making Americans have cultivated the habit for enjoyment Once underemployment, the Fed's policy-makers is bound to meet U.S. authorities, like Japan, long-term maintenance of low interest rates. If the United States and Europe and Japan, long-term maintenance of low interest rates, other countries will not dare to raise interest rates to avoid being short of the posterior others.
  The actual data, last week the United States for the first time jobless claims unexpectedly rose, reaching the highest level since six months, so that concerns over the economic situation of increased weakness. The Labor Department report released Thursday showed that as at August 7th week, the United States for the first time jobless claims increased 2,000 to reach 484,000 people. For the first time jobless claims last reached this level was at 20 February week.Therefore, whether the Government or Obama, or the Federal Reserve Ye Hao, the most important task is to restore employment levels, which means that a new stimulus plan U.S. reboot - including fiscal expansion policy and the quantitative easing monetary policy. Of course, this round of ammunition to stimulate more vigorous, and also need to consider the future of the reality of the situation.
  It is based on consideration of deflation, in particular, is a total of reality to the larger than total demand, surplus countries in crisis is a killer, but often is the appearance of Shang, found that some upward pressure on prices, but practically speaking, this is the capital deflation of the cold storage of heat to escape to a place, have given the illusion. In order to combat deflation, central banks in all developed markets have long-term low interest rates to stimulate economic development, and this is what countries are implementing policies. However, even this may not be able to stimulate the economy starts to recover quickly, such as Japan, the interest rate can not loose loose, if there is a crisis, Japan's first to be affected, there is in fact the loss of Japanese manufacturing capacity expansion. However, if you do not maintain low interest rates, economic recession may be long-term unemployment rate increased, the community will be turbulence, relatively peaceful world, may have to a large hiccups have risen.
  Advantage of emerging countries resources, such as Russia, is very rich. Like China's comparative advantage lies in the population bonus, there is a miracle of China's economy is the demographic factors. However, census drawn consume resources and manpower, which for the emerging countries, or very unfavorable. In fact, sometimes the world economic slowdown, is to prevent the excessive greed of human resources and human advances, however, if the economy may be more damaging long-term depression, which is anyone not want to see.
  Current real estate control policies, in the short run, is made certain achievements, such as pressure from the religious ties to volume, but followed by a firm, and the economy began to weaken. Though no great danger, but to understand that although the economy in the world, but not stormy haze scenarios happen, once the world economic downturn, the risk of such a policy would greatly.
  At the macro policy, the policy is difficult to control the world economic pattern is the sudden switch, which is difficult for anyone to expect, therefore, we must maintain the policy of flexibility, not a thick stick poke in the end, otherwise, once the situation in which mutations occur reversed previous policies so there is a lag period, running around in circles is more difficult to switch. Therefore, we can see, the current policy is hovering at the crossroads, at any time after the circumstances are likely to move about the transfer. But one thing is should be clear, the beginning of the development of fiscal policy and monetary policy should be worthy of the name insists that it is the foothold, to deal with the future of even greater austerity and crisis.
本文来自新浪博客；http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_512823410100lc27.html?tj=1
作者；朱大鸣