博文
是“全球变冷”还是“全球变暖”？
（新京报·新知周刊）
Opening of the Conference in Cancun, Copenhagen last year, apart from relying on Viagra, the public concern about climate is like one hot day. However, as the cold air north of the south, is also spreading a voice: the strong cold air emerging, many places have trouble opening a snowstorm, a similar situation has been going on for years, is obviously a "global cooling" How can there be "global warming" ah!
This is indeed "anti-global warming theorists," often mentioned example: 70s of last century, "global cooling" has attracted wide attention, but then "global warming" back into the mainstream theory. Since the "global cooling" was gone, and that "global warming" will disappear sooner or later. Really true?
70s of last century, some scientists believe that the world will enter a new ice age. The reason they have such a guess that it was because the scientific community recognized that there are two factors that can lead to global cooling: a large number of atmospheric aerosols (suspended fine particles in the atmosphere) and the Earth's orbit changes. Human activities increase the atmospheric aerosol content. They reflected solar radiation, causing global cooling. In addition, the slow periodic changes in Earth's orbit by changing the inclination of the Earth's rotation axis and the shape of the orbits, thus changing the total amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth and its distribution in different latitudes, thereby affecting the Earth's climate. Scientists then inference, then the world will gradually move to the Ice Age. Therefore, some scientists have proposed a "global cooling" of the conjecture. Of course, the slow changes in Earth's orbit, it was considered a relatively short period of "global cooling" is mainly caused by the aerosol.
However, "global cooling" in the current year is only part of the scientist's guess. At that time the scientific community very clearly the physical mechanism of the greenhouse effect, and will enhance the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide has long been realized, leading to global warming. However, because of the lack of data, scientists aerosols is difficult to determine the "cooling effect" in the end there will be more strong, so it is difficult to determine in the end is the "cooling effect" is more obvious or more significant greenhouse effect. Mainstream views of the scientific community at that time was: In accordance with the understanding that time is not enough to make a final decision. 1975 National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Council's report made clear that the scientific community was not sure how future climate will change.
However, some media in the dissemination of scientific knowledge is like the "explosion effect", while ignoring scientific rigor. 70s of last century, "global cooling" This was the reason why there is no conclusion will be the subject of public attention, is today's skeptics as "the year of the mainstream" media's inaccurate propaganda "contributed." The most famous example is the American "Newsweek" reports in 1975. In the report, "Global Cooling" concept is a very frightening way to disseminate to the public, resulting in the concept of a pandemic. Interestingly, until 2006, "Newsweek" was made an errata, that the conclusion of this old article is not accurate.
70s of last century, "global cooling" and "global warming" is the scientific understanding of climate scientists, not impressive enough when the two future climate to guess. In recent years, with the increase in observational data, scientists for the aerosol-induced climate change may have a better understanding of existing findings indicate that the cooling effect has to be less than the warming effect of greenhouse gases. At the same time, from the early 90s of last century, atmospheric aerosol concentrations showed a decreasing trend. Taking these into account, "global cooling" the disappearance of this conjecture is not surprising.
This is indeed "anti-global warming theorists," often mentioned example: 70s of last century, "global cooling" has attracted wide attention, but then "global warming" back into the mainstream theory. Since the "global cooling" was gone, and that "global warming" will disappear sooner or later. Really true?
70s of last century, some scientists believe that the world will enter a new ice age. The reason they have such a guess that it was because the scientific community recognized that there are two factors that can lead to global cooling: a large number of atmospheric aerosols (suspended fine particles in the atmosphere) and the Earth's orbit changes. Human activities increase the atmospheric aerosol content. They reflected solar radiation, causing global cooling. In addition, the slow periodic changes in Earth's orbit by changing the inclination of the Earth's rotation axis and the shape of the orbits, thus changing the total amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth and its distribution in different latitudes, thereby affecting the Earth's climate. Scientists then inference, then the world will gradually move to the Ice Age. Therefore, some scientists have proposed a "global cooling" of the conjecture. Of course, the slow changes in Earth's orbit, it was considered a relatively short period of "global cooling" is mainly caused by the aerosol.
However, "global cooling" in the current year is only part of the scientist's guess. At that time the scientific community very clearly the physical mechanism of the greenhouse effect, and will enhance the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide has long been realized, leading to global warming. However, because of the lack of data, scientists aerosols is difficult to determine the "cooling effect" in the end there will be more strong, so it is difficult to determine in the end is the "cooling effect" is more obvious or more significant greenhouse effect. Mainstream views of the scientific community at that time was: In accordance with the understanding that time is not enough to make a final decision. 1975 National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Council's report made clear that the scientific community was not sure how future climate will change.
However, some media in the dissemination of scientific knowledge is like the "explosion effect", while ignoring scientific rigor. 70s of last century, "global cooling" This was the reason why there is no conclusion will be the subject of public attention, is today's skeptics as "the year of the mainstream" media's inaccurate propaganda "contributed." The most famous example is the American "Newsweek" reports in 1975. In the report, "Global Cooling" concept is a very frightening way to disseminate to the public, resulting in the concept of a pandemic. Interestingly, until 2006, "Newsweek" was made an errata, that the conclusion of this old article is not accurate.
70s of last century, "global cooling" and "global warming" is the scientific understanding of climate scientists, not impressive enough when the two future climate to guess. In recent years, with the increase in observational data, scientists for the aerosol-induced climate change may have a better understanding of existing findings indicate that the cooling effect has to be less than the warming effect of greenhouse gases. At the same time, from the early 90s of last century, atmospheric aerosol concentrations showed a decreasing trend. Taking these into account, "global cooling" the disappearance of this conjecture is not surprising.
□poguy（美国 地球与环境科学博士生）
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